Twitter’s debt and worth have plunged painfully since Elon Musk takeover: sources

Large banks and traders that helped Elon Musk full his $44 billion takeover of Twitter are taking a shower on their fairness stakes and loans to the money-bleeding social media web site, in keeping with monetary filings and sources interviewed by The Publish.

Constancy Investments has been compelled to put in writing down the preliminary stake it took in Twitter — valued at $19.66 million final October — to $8.63 million, in keeping with a current securities submitting by Constancy.

However insiders say the markdown on Twitter’s fairness worth could possibly be even steeper in actuality, with a number of sources noting that the $13 billion Musk borrowed towards Twitter to fund the buyout wouldn’t even promote for 50 cents on the greenback.

Morgan Stanley led a gaggle that included Financial institution of America, Mitsubishi, BNP Paribas, Mizuho and Societe Generale that underwrote the $13 billion mortgage for the Oct. 27 deal. Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley has not tried to syndicate the mortgage as a result of there’s a very restricted marketplace for the paper and it’s properly underwater, two well-placed sources mentioned.

“Nobody is touching this debt till a brand new CEO is employed and folks can get readability on the revenues,” one of many sources mentioned.

“I don’t assume they’ll promote it at 50 cents on the greenback in the event that they tried,” mentioned the second supply, who is likely one of the bigger consumers of secondary loans.

These loans should be marked down by 70% of their worth, in keeping with one supply who constructions leveraged loans and is following the matter. That estimate is much extra drastic than the markdown of as a lot as 20% that Reuters reported Morgan Stanley will take to replicate the current worth of the mortgage when the financial institution reviews earnings on Jan. 17.

Morgan Stanley refused to remark when contacted by The Publish on Tuesday.

Elon Musk took the reins on Twitter in a $44 billion takeover final 12 months.

Curiosity on the loans is about $1.3 billion a 12 months, The Publish beforehand reported. Debt is senior to fairness within the capital construction.

Musk took Twitter non-public after paying $54.20 a share for the location and isn’t required to share financials with anybody apart from his banks. There’s hypothesis Twitter’s income is now on tempo over the following 12 months to be $1 billion after reaching $5 billion in 2021, one of many sources mentioned.

Musk has given blended indicators on Twitter’s present price. In early December, the tech mogul mentioned he was trying to promote stakes in Twitter on the similar worth he paid, indicating it had not dropped in worth. But, he tweeted on Dec. 18 that Twitter “has been within the quick lane to chapter since Could.”

The lenders imagine the opportunity of chapter is one more reason to not purchase Twitter debt, the supply.

“Who needs to go towards Musk in a restructuring?” one of many lenders mentioned.

Musk has confronted vital scrutiny since taking up Twitter — which has included a whole bunch of job cuts, clashes with advertisers and an overhaul of the corporate’s account verification insurance policies.

Half of Twitter’s prime 100 advertisers starting from AT&T to Wells Fargo have seemingly stopped promoting on Twitter, in keeping with Media Issues for America.

outside Twitter office building
Musk took Twitter non-public after paying $54.20 a share for the location.
Liz Hafalia/San Francisco Chronicle through AP

Odeon Capital Group Analyst Dick Bove instructed The Publish that Morgan Stanley has not commented but on the mortgage and can doubtless be requested about it on the earnings name.

He mentioned Morgan Stanley has been very bullish on tech, and that’s the reason they’d make what has turned out to be this dangerous mortgage.

Bove believes Morgan Stanley needs to be focusing extra consideration on pure assets, manufacturing and protection.

“They’re positioned precisely incorrectly for the place the economic system is shifting,” Bove mentioned.

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