How The Upcoming Negotiations May Play Out In Congress


The federal authorities will attain its borrowing cap—often known as the debt ceiling—as early as Thursday, forcing the Treasury to take “extraordinary measures” to satisfy its monetary obligations over the subsequent few months, setting the stage for a legislative showdown by which Republicans plan to demand steep spending cuts in change for a debt ceiling hike.

Key Information

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned in a letter to lawmakers final week that her potential to keep away from a default, a situation that may wreak havoc on the financial system and threaten key spending packages equivalent to Social Safety and navy pay, might finish as early as June.

Congress might want to increase the debt ceiling earlier than then to forestall the federal government from defaulting on its obligations for the primary time in U.S. historical past, and a few Republicans plan to ask for spending reductions, reforms to entitlement packages equivalent to Medicare and Social Safety and sweeping modifications to President Joe Biden’s insurance policies in change for a debt restrict enhance.

Indicating cuts to spending can be a key precedence for Home Republicans within the debt ceiling negotiations, Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) instructed Fox Information final week “one of many best threats now we have to this nation is our debt.”

Republicans are already bracing for a stalemate, and have begun getting ready directions for the Treasury Division on which packages to proceed funding if Congress can not agree to lift the $31.4 trillion debt restrict later this yr, the Washington Publish reported Friday, citing sources who stated the GOP may instruct the Treasury to prioritize funds to Social Safety, Medicare, veterans advantages and navy funding if cap on borrowing isn’t raised.

Many consultants say a debt prioritization plan can be powerful to implement and wouldn’t get rid of the monetary turmoil of a default, whereas the concept faces lengthy odds of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate and being signed into legislation by Biden.

In the meantime, White Home Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated final week a debt restrict enhance shouldn’t be topic to negotiations: “This isn’t political gamesmanship” and it “ought to be accomplished with out circumstances,” she instructed reporters Friday.

If McCarthy refuses to current a invoice to extend the debt ceiling to the Home ground, Democrats might deliver a “discharge petition” that may power a vote on the problem, however they would wish 5 Republicans to conform to the petition to succeed in the 218 majority threshold to power a vote.

Key Background

This isn’t the primary time that the debt ceiling has generated partisan battle: In 2011 and 2013, the GOP-controlled Home feuded with Senate Democrats and President Barack Obama over the debt restrict, bringing the federal authorities near default. However Republicans’ slim four-seat majority within the Home has given new authority to conservatives who proved throughout the GOP’s chaotic speaker elections the lengths they’re keen to go to power McCarthy to prioritize their calls for. He was elected after 15 rounds of voting and solely after he agreed to a set of Home guidelines modifications that curtailed his energy, together with permitting only one member to kickstart the method for ejecting the speaker. The bundle additionally included a provision that requires the Home to vote on a debt restrict enhance, fairly than together with it in a funds decision. The GOP’s hopes for spending cuts within the debt restrict talks stretch past the social gathering’s hard-right faction, nonetheless. Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), the newly appointed chair of the Home Methods and Means Committee, threatened to suggest a invoice that may roll again Biden’s “radical” insurance policies in change for agreeing to lift the debt restrict, he instructed Axios in September. “If Republicans try to chop spending, certainly he would not attempt to default. If we have been attempting to deliver down inflation … attempting to safe our border, certainly he would not default,” he stated.

Chief Critic

Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer (D-NY) warned “a default compelled by excessive MAGA Republicans might plunge the nation right into a deep recession and result in even greater prices for America’s working households on every part from mortgages and automobile loans to bank card rates of interest,” they stated in an announcement final week.


Former President Donald Trump has urged Republicans to “play powerful” within the upcoming debt restrict negotiations in a collection of posts on his Fact Social platform. “Republicans can get again virtually every part that McConnell gave as much as the Radical Left. Be powerful, don’t give in,” he wrote Sunday.

Huge Quantity

$2.5 trillion. That’s the quantity Congress final agreed to extend the debt restrict by in December 2021. Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 occasions since 1960, in keeping with the Treasury.

Additional Studying

U.S. May Run Out Of Money By Early June If Debt Restrict Isn’t Raised, Yellen Warns (Forbes)

As Debt Ceiling Countdown Begins, Ought to Markets Be Involved? (Forbes)

The Looming Debt Ceiling Disaster (Forbes)

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